Election
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US CPI Preview: Inflation Uptick Potential after Trump Election, Red Wave
The Fed is seen as nearly 50/50 to cut interest rates again in December after Donald Trump and the Republicans secured a “Red Wave” last week - see what to expect from US CPI!
AUD/JPY endorses Trump presidency, AUD/USD fights back
If you haven’t heard already, Donald Trump has been elected as President of the United States. flipped the senate and on the cusp of taking the house. A risk-on session ensued, which played nicely for AUD/JPY bulls - who now have 103 in focus.
Crude oil forecast: Increased drilling under Trump could weigh on prices
The immediate response in the commodities space to the Republican’s clean sweep victory has been a bearish one - especially for industrial metals. Copper and silver fell over 4% each, tracking weaker iron ore prices, while gold was off by around 3%. Crude prices fell too but came sharply off their earlier lows.
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Bitcoin the Big Winner, USD and Stocks Surge on Trump Victory
Markets are making big moves on the back of Trump’s win and if House results confirm a Republican supermajority, there could be drive for even further highs in stocks and Bitcoin. The US Dollar, however…
Markets react to Trump win: US futures, dollar surge, commodities drop
The rationale behind the US stock market rally is that Trump is seen as business-friendly and will be able to pass on his tax cuts through easily without much resistance from the democrats who have lost control of the senate.
Markets tracked their historical norm on election day, volatile reversals incoming?
We saw the usual risk-on bounce election day tends to bring. But if markets continue to track their historical averages, we’re in for some volatile reversals today.
EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD, S&P 500: US Dollar Price Action into the Election
The US Dollar is pulling back on election day and the currency is no longer overbought on the daily chart. In this webinar I looked at several election-related setups and in this article I look at a few of those in USD, EUR/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CAD.
Japanese Yen Short-term Outlook: USD/JPY Stalls into US Election, Fed
USD/JPY surged 10% off the yearly low with the bulls relenting at key resistance ahead of US elections / FOMC. Battle lines drawn on the short-term technical charts.
EUR/USD outlook hinges heavily on election outcome
The EUR/USD has been supported in the last few days for several macro reasons such as the ECB pushback against a 50-basis point rate cut in December, a rather weak US jobs report, and, more to the point, the recent poll suggesting Harris might be performing better than anticipated in swing state of Iowa.
Gold, Oil Outlook: US Elections, FOMC, and Possible Domino Effects
Gold, Oil Outlook: Following a period of geopolitical and USD-related uncertainty, gold’s uptrend has stalled below $2,800, while oil remains in a tight consolidation below $72. Markets are calm and appear poised for a potential spark.
How the US election could impact the Fed
The US dollar and yields have enjoyed a strong rally over the past five weeks, thanks to hotter US data, Fed members pushing back on rate cuts, and Trump leading in many polls. But with the US election on our doorstep and the potential for a delayed result, could this tie the Fed’s hands at this week’s meeting?
US Dollar In Focus for the Election: Rates, Stocks Set for Volatility
The US Dollar was very strong in October as rising odds of a Trump win started to get priced-in to markets, but can equities avoid a pullback if longer-term US rates continue to fly-higher?
Gold analysis: XAU/USD rebounds as Trump’s lead narrows
Gold has started a busy week on the front-foot, after finishing last week on a downbeat note. The recovery is due in part to a weaker US dollar as investors have evidently scaled back some Trump trades – which also explains the gap seen in the EUR/USD pair we saw overnight .
DAX outlook: Stocks direction and US election outcome far from certain
With the US election now just one day away, things can turn rapidly across financial markets, particularly because this is turning out to be such a close election and the polls cannot and should not be trusted. Given the fact that the DAX has weakened in the last couple of weeks, this also argues against a sustainable recovery as the prior bullish momentum has been lost.
Gold forecast: XAU/USD eases US election keeping US dollar bid
The yellow metal ended Friday near its session lows, creating some bearish-looking price candles on both the daily and weekly time frames. So the near-term gold forecast is somewhat bearish ahead of the much-anticipated US presidential election and the FOMC’s policy meeting in the week head.
EUR/USD forecast bearish despite NFP disappointment – Forex Friday
Market participants are closely watching the potential impact of a Trump victory on European and Chinese assets, given the possibility of renewed tariffs. This is the primary factor affecting the EUR/USD forecast, likely limiting gains to around 1.0900 and exposing further downside in the near-term outlook.
How the 2024 US Elections Could Impact the UAE
As the US elections draw near, the potential impacts of a Trump or Harris administration on the UAE are being closely examined. Changes in US policies could bring significant effects across various sectors in the UAE, though the country's economic resilience is expected to remain robust.
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S&P 500, ASX 200 are on the ropes, but help may be at hand
A brutal day for risk sent Wall Street indices lower on Thursday, but support levels and the tendency for stocks to rise on the week of a US election could help the S&P 500 and ASX 200. Assuming the wheels don't truly fall off first.
JPY tends to rise and indices fall the Friday before a US election
A less-dovish BOJ may have strengthened the yen while weak tech earnings weighed on Wall Street Thursday, but these patters could persist on Friday if they follow their usual pre-election path looking, according to historical data.
USD/JPY forecast: US dollar remains on firm footing despite softening a tad
With a key measure of US inflation and consumer spending both rising more than expected, adding to the other signs of an economy proving more resilient than the Fed and others had expected, and not to mention the rising probability of the dollar-positive Trump gaining a lead in the polls, the greenback is likely to remain on the front-foot. Thus, the near-term USD/JPY forecast is still bullish, barring a major risk-off event that could support yen’s haven appeal.
S&P 500 forecast: Stocks drop amid earnings and election uncertainty
US equities have fallen at the start of today’s US session, following on the losses from the previous day and weaker global markets. The tech sector is in the spotlight following underwhelming earnings reports from Meta and Microsoft, with the latter falling in excess of 5% shortly after the open.
NFP Preview: How Could the Jobs Report Impact the US Election and the Fed?
Coming in the lead up to a tightly-contested Presidential election, this month’s NFP report could have an outsized impact on sentiment and the US dollar.
EUR/USD Forecast: Euro rebounds but outlook uncertain ahead of US election and key data
market participants are eyeing the possible implications of a Trump victory on European and Chinese assets amid the potential for renewed tariffs. This is the number one factor weighing on the EUR/USD forecast, potentially capping the gains to around 1.0900. More key data will follow in the next couple of days, with Eurozone CPI and US Core PCE to come on Thursday, and the ISM Services PMI and Non-farm Payrolls data will be on the way on Friday.