Trade ideas

A bullish breakout in US bonds has sent USD/JPY tumbling below 150, with payrolls now poised to decide whether the yen’s surge gains momentum or fizzles out. Could this be the pivotal moment for bond markets and the Fed's rate path?

We will maintain our bearish EUR/USD forecast for the time being. This pair remains rooted in a bear trend, not just because of the threats of tariffs in 2025, but more so because of weakness in the eurozone economy and therefore the potential for more ECB rate cuts than from the Fed in the US, where even a December rate cut is not fully priced in, let alone cuts in 2025, after Trump’s election victory.

USD/JPY is tumbling, breaking through its 200-day moving average after Tokyo’s inflation data shocked to the upside. With US Treasury yields losing steam and thin markets amplifying moves, traders are eyeing a deeper downside flush. Could the yen’s resurgence have more room to run?

Bitcoin futures followed their seasonal tendency to rally on Thanksgiving Day. And pattern is to hold true today, it could be set for a down day as we veer into the weekend.

French political drama is generating noise again, but don’t be fooled; it's the relative outlook for growth and inflation either side of the Atlantic that’s really moving EUR/USD. With the ECB ready to step in, perpetual French chaos is just a sideshow for the euro.

ASX 200 futures (SPI 200) were allowed to print a fresh record high on a daily-close basis. Yet 8500 remains a clear level of resistance, and one which prompted a potential bearish reversal pattern.

Despite the current gains, a correction may be necessary before the market can sustain a significant upward trajectory, but so far, the technical Nasdaq 100 analysis is still bullish and we haven’t seen a reversal stick.

The recovery in EUR/USD may turn out to be temporary if it struggles to trade back above the former-support zone around the April low (1.0601).

USD/JPY broke below a major support pivot this week with the bears now threatening a larger correction. Battle lines drawn on the weekly/daily technical charts.

The EUR/JPY outlook is increasingly tuning bearish, but it must continue holding below the 160.00 handle to keep the bears happy. I reckon the pair is heading down to 155.00 in the coming days.

Last week was the strongest weekly outing for gold since the regional banking crisis in 2023; but gold’s nine-month streak of gains is at risk as the metal finally pulled back in November.

In Europe, concerns about US tariffs, a struggling Eurozone economy and political uncertainty in France and Germany are continuing to hold back risk assets. France's CAC index is now nearly 6% lower on the year. The DAX forecast is also far from bullish, with a key drag being the European auto sector’s reaction to potential tariff threats.

The RBNZ took the safe option in delivering a 50bps cut, but hawkish signals have traders buzzing. Can NZD/USD sustain its breakout momentum, or will the US dollar reclaim control?

As AUD/JPY is a classic barometer of risk, we should take note that all is not looking well around current levels. And if AUD/JPY tanks, it’s likely to be followed by risk in general.

USD/JPY bulls are on the back foot as US bond yields retreat, triggering a key technical break. With Scott Bessent’s bold fiscal plan easing fears and Fed rate cut bets fading, the pair now skews firmly to the downside.

The consensus is 50bp, market pricing leans towards 75bp. Whatever the RBNZ decide to do today, it comes down to whether they will signal further cuts, as to whether NZD/USD continues to depreciate or bounce on a "sell the rumour, buy the fact" reaction.