Economic Calendar

Tuesday, December 3

15:00 BST

The week’s economic calendar is filled with US macro pointers, including ISM manufacturing PMI on Monday and Services PMI on Wednesday and the official nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. But with the Fed being laser focused on employment, we think that makes this JOLTS data perhaps more important than the ISM PMIs. Any signs of weakness here will increase the odds of a December rate cut, which was priced in around 66% probability as of Friday 29th November.

What to watch: USD, US Tech 100

Thursday, December 5

All day

This OPEC+ meeting was originally scheduled for December 1, but the group decided to delay it to make a more informed decision. Rising non-OPEC oil supply and weak demand growth is the main concern for the OPEC. After repeated delaying hiking output, the group must decide whether to finally proceed with restoring supplies, beginning with an increase of 180,000 barrels a day in January. The recent falls in prices suggest another delay may be on the cards.

What to watch: Crude oil, CAD

Friday, December 6

13:30 BST

The week’s main data highlight will be the November jobs report. After a surprisingly strong report last month and following Trump’s victory in the presidential election race, investors have sharply reduced their expectations about further US interest rate cuts in 2025. The upcoming December rate decision is now a flip coin, and whether the Fed will go ahead with a cut at its last meeting for 2024 will be influenced, among other key data highlights, by this jobs report.

What to watch: USD, Gold