Forex

We may have seen an important swing low on the yen looking at the change of speculative market positioning. And that could see a much deeper pullback on USD/JPY.

AUD/USD has done a poor job of tracking its seasonality overall this year so far. And given it’s taking its directional cue from China while any pullback on the USD may be limited, I'm not hanging my hat on a particularly strong December for AUD/USD.

A bullish breakout in US bonds has sent USD/JPY tumbling below 150, with payrolls now poised to decide whether the yen’s surge gains momentum or fizzles out. Could this be the pivotal moment for bond markets and the Fed's rate path?

We will maintain our bearish EUR/USD forecast for the time being. This pair remains rooted in a bear trend, not just because of the threats of tariffs in 2025, but more so because of weakness in the eurozone economy and therefore the potential for more ECB rate cuts than from the Fed in the US, where even a December rate cut is not fully priced in, let alone cuts in 2025, after Trump’s election victory.

USD/JPY is tumbling, breaking through its 200-day moving average after Tokyo’s inflation data shocked to the upside. With US Treasury yields losing steam and thin markets amplifying moves, traders are eyeing a deeper downside flush. Could the yen’s resurgence have more room to run?

French political drama is generating noise again, but don’t be fooled; it's the relative outlook for growth and inflation either side of the Atlantic that’s really moving EUR/USD. With the ECB ready to step in, perpetual French chaos is just a sideshow for the euro.

NZD/USD is gaining momentum, with US rates diminishing as the dominant driver. With trade war risks back on the radar, the Kiwi’s trajectory could hinge on global sentiment. Can it weather the turbulence?

While parity is just a number in theory, it often carries significant psychological and economic weight - see what it might take to drive to EUR/USD to 1.00!

The slight cooling of the so-called "Trump Trade," i.e., with a strong dollar cooling as we have seen thus far in the week (except against CAD and CNH that were hit by Trump’s tariff threat overnight), may not last long. But today, the euro is finding itself on the front foot amid the relief bounce that commenced from end of last week from severely technical oversold levels. While the recovery may end up lasting for a while, the EUR/USD outlook remains modestly bearish.

True to his campaign promise, Trump is playing hardball with tariffs. But will he deliver, or is this simply a classic Trump-bargaining chip? Regardless, AUD/USD is getting caught up in the headlines.

Trump’s tariff threats send shockwaves through markets, driving the USD higher as trade-reliant currencies plunge. USD/CAD breaks to pandemic highs, while AUD and NZD reel from fears of escalating protectionism.

The slight cooling of the so-called "Trump Trade," characterised by a strong dollar (and a Bitcoin rally), may not last very long. For now, though, traders are adjusting their expectations somewhat and scaling back hopes for aggressive tax cuts and tariff hikes. It is far too early for us to drop out bearish EUR/USD forecast.

GBPUSD, EURJPY: Inflation indicators between the eurozone and the Japanese economy are due this week, following the jump in UK’s inflation rates next week, adding reversal potential to the dollar’s rally ahead of Trump’s presidency.

While traders pushed net-long exposure to the USD to a 20-week high, there is also been a notable pickup of long yen bets. They're also piling into EUR/USD shorts, which is why I continue to suspect USD/JPY and EUR/USD may converge and move lower.

Scott Bessent’s treasury secretary nomination is already impacting markets, sending bond yields lower and sparking a sharp rebound in EUR/USD. But with yield spreads still heavily in favour of the US, the durability of the move faces questions.

AUD/USD managed to recoup some of its post-US-election losses last week. And given it held up against the might USD strength while futures data shows volumes rising for the first week in seven, I suspect an important swing low has been seen.