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japan_09

Bullish bets on the yen continue to gain traction: COT report

We may have seen an important swing low on the yen looking at the change of speculative market positioning. And that could see a much deeper pullback on USD/JPY.

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Today 12:42 AM
aus_04

AUD/USD weekly outlook: Can seasonality save the Aussie?

AUD/USD has done a poor job of tracking its seasonality overall this year so far. And given it’s taking its directional cue from China while any pullback on the USD may be limited, I'm not hanging my hat on a particularly strong December for AUD/USD.

USA flag

USD/JPY forecast: Payrolls pivotal for bullish bond breakout, yen rally longevity

A bullish breakout in US bonds has sent USD/JPY tumbling below 150, with payrolls now poised to decide whether the yen’s surge gains momentum or fizzles out. Could this be the pivotal moment for bond markets and the Fed's rate path?

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EUR/USD forecast: Forex Friday – November 29, 2024

We will maintain our bearish EUR/USD forecast for the time being. This pair remains rooted in a bear trend, not just because of the threats of tariffs in 2025, but more so because of weakness in the eurozone economy and therefore the potential for more ECB rate cuts than from the Fed in the US, where even a December rate cut is not fully priced in, let alone cuts in 2025, after Trump’s election victory.

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November 29, 2024 07:43 AM
Downwards trend with red arrow

USD/JPY: Inflation surprise fuels yen surge, 200DMA break boosts downside risks

USD/JPY is tumbling, breaking through its 200-day moving average after Tokyo’s inflation data shocked to the upside. With US Treasury yields losing steam and thin markets amplifying moves, traders are eyeing a deeper downside flush. Could the yen’s resurgence have more room to run?

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November 28, 2024 08:55 PM

EUR/USD: Fading French political turmoil with the White Knight on standby

French political drama is generating noise again, but don’t be fooled; it's the relative outlook for growth and inflation either side of the Atlantic that’s really moving EUR/USD. With the ECB ready to step in, perpetual French chaos is just a sideshow for the euro.

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November 28, 2024 05:58 PM
Uptrend

NZD/USD shifting from US rates play to trade war proxy?

NZD/USD is gaining momentum, with US rates diminishing as the dominant driver. With trade war risks back on the radar, the Kiwi’s trajectory could hinge on global sentiment. Can it weather the turbulence?

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November 27, 2024 08:38 PM
USD_candlestick

USD/JPY crumbles as Treasury futures surge: key signals to watch

After USD/JPY’s dramatic plunge, the focus shifts to what’s next. Is this just the beginning of further downside, or could a rally toward the 200-day moving average provide fresh opportunities for shorts? Here's what signals from US Treasuries reveal on near-term directional risks.

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November 27, 2024 05:31 PM
Forex trading

EUR/JPY outlook turning increasing bearish: Drop to 155 likely

The EUR/JPY outlook is increasingly tuning bearish, but it must continue holding below the 160.00 handle to keep the bears happy. I reckon the pair is heading down to 155.00 in the coming days.

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November 27, 2024 11:25 AM
Market chart showing uptrend

RBNZ cuts 50bps, signals higher neutral estimate; NZD/USD surges as rate cut slowdown looms

The RBNZ took the safe option in delivering a 50bps cut, but hawkish signals have traders buzzing. Can NZD/USD sustain its breakout momentum, or will the US dollar reclaim control?

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November 26, 2024 09:03 PM
downtrend chart

2025 could be one heck of a ride if bearish AUD/JPY clues are correct

As AUD/JPY is a classic barometer of risk, we should take note that all is not looking well around current levels. And if AUD/JPY tanks, it’s likely to be followed by risk in general.

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November 26, 2024 07:56 PM
japan_03

USD/JPY: Bearish break signals deeper slide as US yields retreat

USD/JPY bulls are on the back foot as US bond yields retreat, triggering a key technical break. With Scott Bessent’s bold fiscal plan easing fears and Fed rate cut bets fading, the pair now skews firmly to the downside.

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November 26, 2024 05:21 PM
interest_rates_01

NZD/USD, AUD/NZD: RBNZ to mull dovish cut in face of tariffs, Trump 2.0

The consensus is 50bp, market pricing leans towards 75bp. Whatever the RBNZ decide to do today, it comes down to whether they will signal further cuts, as to whether NZD/USD continues to depreciate or bounce on a "sell the rumour, buy the fact" reaction.

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Euro Parity: What Will it Take to Drive the EUR/USD to 1.00?

While parity is just a number in theory, it often carries significant psychological and economic weight - see what it might take to drive to EUR/USD to 1.00!

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November 26, 2024 02:41 PM
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EUR/USD outlook: Euro extends recovery but don’t expect it to last

The slight cooling of the so-called "Trump Trade," i.e., with a strong dollar cooling as we have seen thus far in the week (except against CAD and CNH that were hit by Trump’s tariff threat overnight), may not last long. But today, the euro is finding itself on the front foot amid the relief bounce that commenced from end of last week from severely technical oversold levels. While the recovery may end up lasting for a while, the EUR/USD outlook remains modestly bearish.

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November 26, 2024 07:53 AM
Market chart

AUD slammed on Trump tariffs, even though we’ve seen this movie before

True to his campaign promise, Trump is playing hardball with tariffs. But will he deliver, or is this simply a classic Trump-bargaining chip? Regardless, AUD/USD is getting caught up in the headlines.

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Trump tariff threat roils markets: USD surges, CAD, AUD, NZD sink

Trump’s tariff threats send shockwaves through markets, driving the USD higher as trade-reliant currencies plunge. USD/CAD breaks to pandemic highs, while AUD and NZD reel from fears of escalating protectionism.

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November 25, 2024 07:42 PM
Forex trading

EUR/USD forecast: Currency Pair of the Week – November 25, 2024

The slight cooling of the so-called "Trump Trade," characterised by a strong dollar (and a Bitcoin rally), may not last very long. For now, though, traders are adjusting their expectations somewhat and scaling back hopes for aggressive tax cuts and tariff hikes. It is far too early for us to drop out bearish EUR/USD forecast.

Research

GBPUSD, EURJPY Outlook: Inflation Reports and Key Levels

GBPUSD, EURJPY: Inflation indicators between the eurozone and the Japanese economy are due this week, following the jump in UK’s inflation rates next week, adding reversal potential to the dollar’s rally ahead of Trump’s presidency.

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November 25, 2024 03:36 AM
Research

Yen futures gain bullish traction, bears weigh on EUR/USD: COT report

While traders pushed net-long exposure to the USD to a 20-week high, there is also been a notable pickup of long yen bets. They're also piling into EUR/USD shorts, which is why I continue to suspect USD/JPY and EUR/USD may converge and move lower.

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EUR/USD: Bessent bounce underpinned by bullish bond breakout

Scott Bessent’s treasury secretary nomination is already impacting markets, sending bond yields lower and sparking a sharp rebound in EUR/USD. But with yield spreads still heavily in favour of the US, the durability of the move faces questions.

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November 24, 2024 10:13 PM
aus_07

AUD/USD weekly outlook: With speculative vols rising, a low may have been seen

AUD/USD managed to recoup some of its post-US-election losses last week. And given it held up against the might USD strength while futures data shows volumes rising for the first week in seven, I suspect an important swing low has been seen.