Moderna Q2 preview: Where next for MRNA stock?

When will Moderna release Q2 earnings?

Moderna is scheduled to release second quarter earnings before US markets open on Wednesday August 3. The company will hold a conference call on the same day at 0800 ET.

Moderna Q2 earnings consensus

Wall Street forecasts revenue will drop 7.6% in the second quarter to $4.0 billion and diluted EPS is expected to plunge 30% to $4.54. 

Moderna Q2 earnings preview

Moderna is expected to report the first drop in sales since it started making serious sums selling its Covid-19 vaccine when it reports second quarter results this week. 

Hype around Covid-19 vaccine makers has waned this year as the pandemic has eased, and the attention will remain on how demand is shaping up and whether governments are still committed to jabbing against sub-variants. Investors will be hopeful it can reiterate its guidance to strike signed purchase agreements worth $21 billion in 2022.

Moderna has said it expects to secure slightly more orders in the second half compared to the first. The company has only announced one major new deal since its last set of results, having agreed to sell 66 million doses of its vaccine to the US government as it continues with its booster programme. That is worth some $1.74 billion, and the government has an option to purchase another 234 million doses which, based on the price of the initial round of jabs, could be worth another $6.2 billion. That will provide some confidence that governments remain committed to jabbing their populations.

While the focus remains on its Covid-19 drug, it is hoping to release up to three respiratory drugs in the next two to three years if everything goes to plan. A new vaccine targeting the BA.4/5 sub-variant is on its way, although this could cause softness in the meantime if buyers decide to wait for the new jab.

Markets remain uncertain what this year will hold for Moderna. Wall Street’s revenue forecasts remain wide for 2022, ranging from a low of $20.3 billion to a high of $25.9 billion (with a mean of $22.0 billion). Diluted EPS is forecast to dip 2.9% in 2022 following the landmark profit made last year, which was the first it has recorded since inception.

Where next for MRNA stock?

Moderna shares were thrusted into overbought territory after hitting its highest level in over two months at $176 last month, suggesting this could be a tough ceiling to crack for the stock. The fact trading volumes over the last 10 sessions are almost half the 100-day average supports the view that it could struggle to break above this level without a new catalyst. If it can, then the March-high of $188 comes into view, followed by the 200-day moving average at $193. Notably, the 20 brokers that cover the stock see slightly more upside potential with an average target price of $221, where it last sat in early 2022.

On the downside, the 50-day and 100-day moving averages that have converged around the $150 mark can be treated as an initial floor for the stock going forward, although we could see it falter back toward $120 if it comes under renewed pressure. The 18-month low of $116 should be regarded as the ultimate floor.

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