US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Report Preview (SEP 2024)

US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index

The US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) showed the headline reading narrowing to 2.2% in August from 2.5% per annum the month prior.

US Economic Calendar – September 27, 2024

Nevertheless, the core PCE increased to 2.7% from 2.6% during the same period, with the update from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis revealing that ‘personal income increased $50.5 billion (0.2 percent at a monthly rate) in August.’

A deeper look at report showed that ‘prices for goods decreased 0.9 percent and prices for services increased 3.7 percent,’ with the BEA going onto say that ‘food prices increased 1.1 percent and energy prices decreased 5.0 percent.’

Join David Song for the Weekly Fundamental Market Outlook webinar. David provides a market overview and takes questions in real-time. Register Here

EUR/USD Chart – 15 Minute

Chart Prepared by David Song, Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView

The US Dollar came under pressure following the mixed development, with EUR/USD climbing to a fresh session high of 1.1203. Nevertheless, the market reaction was short-lived as EUR/USD ended the day at 1.1163, with the weakness into October as the exchange rate closed the week at the 1.0976.

Looking ahead, the update to the US PCE is anticipated to show a slowdown in both the headline and core reading for inflation, and further evidence of easing price growth may drag on the US Dollar as it encourages the Federal Reserve to pursue a rate-cutting cycle.

At the same time, a higher-than-expected PCE print may generate a bullish reaction in the Greenback as signs of a resilient labor market curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut.

Additional Market Outlooks

Monetary vs Fiscal Policy: Implications for FX Markets

British Pound Outlook: GBP/USD Recovery Emerges Ahead of UK Budget

USD/CAD Eyes August High as RSI Holds in Overbought Territory

AUD/USD Vulnerable amid Failure to Defend September Low

--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist

Follow on Twitter at @DavidJSong

The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

Please note that foreign exchange and other leveraged trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved, seeking independent advice if necessary.

The products and services available to you at FOREX.com will depend on your location and on which of its regulated entities holds your account.

FOREX.com is a trading name of GAIN Global Markets Inc. which is authorized and regulated by the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority under the Securities Investment Business Law of the Cayman Islands (as revised) with License number 25033.

FOREX.com may, from time to time, offer payment processing services with respect to card deposits through StoneX Financial Ltd, Moor House First Floor, 120 London Wall, London, EC2Y 5ET.

GAIN Global Markets Inc. has its principal place of business at 30 Independence Blvd, Suite 300 (3rd floor), Warren, NJ 07059, USA., and is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.