Gold Forecast: Is $3,000/ounce on the Horizon?

Key Events

US Elections and Fed Rate Decision
BRICS Summit
Technical Analysis: XAUUSD

US Elections and Fed Rate Decision

The US elections are two weeks away, and so is the next Fed rate meeting. The uncertainty surrounding the election results, foreign relations, and their impact on the US economy is driving demand for gold.

Inflation remains a challenge to the expected monetary easing cycle, and with both political parties presenting differing stances on taxation and tariffs, investors are hedging their portfolios with gold until more clarity emerges.

BRICS Summit

The BRICS alliance (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), now including the UAE, Iran, Egypt, and Ethiopia, with Saudi Arabia invited, is poised to create significant geopolitical shifts.

Representing over 40% of global oil production and 29% of world GDP, BRICS decisions to establish a new monetary system independent of the US Dollar could weaken global demand for the dollar, further strengthening gold’s position as the ultimate hedge.

Technical Analysis

Gold Forecast: Monthly Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Tradingview

Between 2011 and 2024 gold has followed a cup and handle price pattern:

2011 – 2020: cup pattern suggesting a potential breakout towards the $4,000-mark
2020 – 2024: handle formation with an inverted head and shoulders pattern, indicating a breakout towards 2760 – 2800.

Current price levels are approaching the inverted head and shoulders target, with a potential range extending between $2800 and $3,050.

Downside risks can be expected given the possible need for the trend to recharge with a pullback before proceeding with its primary uptrend.

Gold Forecast: 3 Day Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Tradingview

From a 3-day time frame perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator is in overbought territory, previously seen at the $2,430 high in April, signaling a possible pullback.

Bullish Scenario:

A strong close above $2,760 could push prices further to $2,800, $2,890, and eventually $3,050.

Bearish Scenario:

If momentum weakens at current highs, support levels around $2,680 and $2,600 could hold potential pullbacks. Should bearish momentum build further, a deeper drop could target $2,530 and $2,480, potentially initiating a longer-term bearish correction.

--- Written by Razan Hilal, CMT – on X: @Rh_waves

The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

Please note that foreign exchange and other leveraged trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved, seeking independent advice if necessary.

The products and services available to you at FOREX.com will depend on your location and on which of its regulated entities holds your account.

FOREX.com is a trading name of GAIN Global Markets Inc. which is authorized and regulated by the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority under the Securities Investment Business Law of the Cayman Islands (as revised) with License number 25033.

FOREX.com may, from time to time, offer payment processing services with respect to card deposits through StoneX Financial Ltd, Moor House First Floor, 120 London Wall, London, EC2Y 5ET.

GAIN Global Markets Inc. has its principal place of business at 30 Independence Blvd, Suite 300 (3rd floor), Warren, NJ 07059, USA., and is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.