Japanese Yen Technical Forecast: USD/JPY Bears Emerge

Japanese Yen Technical Forecast: USD/JPY Weekly / Daily Trade Levels

USD/JPY reversal off key resistance breaks initial uptrend support
USD/JPY risk for deeper correction into monthly cross
Resistance 152, 153.40, 154.34 (key)- Support ~150.50, 149.60-150.19, 148.16 (key)

The Japanese Yen is poised to mark a third consecutive daily advance against the US Dollar with a break below the November opening-range lows in USD/JPY now threatening a deeper correction. Battle lines drawn on the USD/JPY weekly & daily technical charts into the December open.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Yen setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Japanese Yen Price Chart – USD/JPY Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/JPY on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Japanese Yen Technical Forecast we noted that the USD/JPY had, “responded to Fibonacci resistance with price poised to mark an outside-reversal on the heels of a four-week rally- risk for a larger pullback within the broader uptrend. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to the median-line / 153 IF price is heading for a breakout on this stretch…” USD/JPY has now plunged more than 3.7% off those highs with price breaking below the 153-handle today.

On a weekly basis, the focus is on a weekly close sub-152- to keep the immediate short-bias viable into the December open. Note that 152 is defined by the 1989 high, the 1986 low, the 2022/2023 highs, and currently converges on the 200-day moving average. A close below this threshold would suggest a larger pullback is underway.

Japanese Yen Price Chart – USD/JPY Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/JPY on TradingView

A closer look at the daily chart shows USD/JPY breaking below the median-line yesterday with price now attempting a break the objective monthly opening-range lows. Initial support rests along the 25% parallel (currently ~150.50s) and is backed closely a key technical range at 149.60-150.20- a region defined by the 2023 high-week close (HWC) and the 38.2% retracement of the September advance. Broader bullish invalidation now raised to the lower parallel / 50% retracement at 148.16.

Resistance now eyed at back at 153.40 with a breach / close above the median-line / monthly high-day reversal close at 154.34 needed to mark uptrend resumption. Key resistance unchanged at 156.67.

Bottom line: A break below the median-line suggests the potential for a larger correction within the September uptrend with initial support objectives now coming into view. From a trading standpoint, look to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops on a stretch towards 150 IF reached. Ultimately, we are looking for an exhaustion low ahead of 148 for the September rally to remain viable with a breach / close above 154.34 needed to mark uptrend resumption.

Keep in mind we are heading into the Thanksgiving holiday and the close of the month with US non-farm payrolls on tap next week. Stay nimble into the monthly cross and watch the weekly closes for guidance here. Review my latest Japanese Yen Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term USD/JPY technical trade levels.

USD/JPY Key Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

Please note that foreign exchange and other leveraged trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved, seeking independent advice if necessary.

The products and services available to you at FOREX.com will depend on your location and on which of its regulated entities holds your account.

FOREX.com is a trading name of GAIN Global Markets Inc. which is authorized and regulated by the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority under the Securities Investment Business Law of the Cayman Islands (as revised) with License number 25033.

FOREX.com may, from time to time, offer payment processing services with respect to card deposits through StoneX Financial Ltd, Moor House First Floor, 120 London Wall, London, EC2Y 5ET.

GAIN Global Markets Inc. has its principal place of business at 30 Independence Blvd, Suite 300 (3rd floor), Warren, NJ 07059, USA., and is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.