USDJPY Silver Forecast: Haven Rally Boosts Dollar and Metals
Key Events
- PMIs: Japan and US (Thursday)
- Tokyo Core CPI (Friday)
- Japanese Elections (Oct 27)
- US Elections (Nov 5)
- Technical Analysis: USDJPY, XAGUSD
The USDJPY rebounded sharply above 150, fueled by a stronger US Dollar driven by haven demand, easing expectations of US rate cuts, uncertainty in the upcoming Japanese and US elections, and rising US bond yields. A cooling of Tokyo's inflation toward the 2% BOJ target also contributed to the pair's rally.
Friday’s Tokyo CPI results could add more volatility, as inflation hovering around 2% raises questions about the Bank of Japan’s next move—a potential rate hike or a hold.
Technical Analysis
USDJPY Forecast: 3Day Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: Tradingview
The USDJPY is climbing back toward the trendline connecting the lows of January 2023 and January 2024. Upside potential aligns with resistance levels at 153.80 and 155, which coincide with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the drop between July’s 161.76 high and September’s 139.58 low.
Bearish Scenario: From the downside, given the momentum is reaching towards resistance and overbought levels, a pullback is expected to hold at support levels 149 and 147 respectively before tracing a bearish scenario once again.
Silver Forecast: 3Day Time Frame Log Scale
Source: Tradingview
Retesting 12 year highs, Silver is accelerating alongside the record gold rally, eyeing 40$/ounce. Silver’s bullish momentum is aligned with the upper boundary of a one-year up trending parallel channel.
After surpassing the $34.80 mark, the next resistance levels for silver are expected to align with $35.90, $37, and $40.
However, if overbought conditions trigger a pullback, support at $33 and $30 could hold before any deeper corrective scenario emerges.
--- Written by Razan Hilal, CMT – on X:@Rh_waves
The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.
Please note that foreign exchange and other leveraged trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved, seeking independent advice if necessary.
The products and services available to you at FOREX.com will depend on your location and on which of its regulated entities holds your account.
FOREX.com is a trading name of GAIN Global Markets Inc. which is authorized and regulated by the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority under the Securities Investment Business Law of the Cayman Islands (as revised) with License number 25033.
FOREX.com may, from time to time, offer payment processing services with respect to card deposits through StoneX Financial Ltd, Moor House First Floor, 120 London Wall, London, EC2Y 5ET.
GAIN Global Markets Inc. has its principal place of business at 30 Independence Blvd, Suite 300 (3rd floor), Warren, NJ 07059, USA., and is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.
© FOREX.COM 2024